“Markets aren’t perfect, but they’re the best mechanism we’ve got, for discounting not only future cash flows but future uncertainties,” Pidot said. “So markets generally benefit from models to the extent they can incorporate them […]
On the other hand, a Harris win may slow down the pace of adoption due to a more restrictive regulatory regime. (The Biden administration that she’s served in since 2021 has tended to be highly […]
“If the trading amounts to any one of these species of election or market manipulation, then it is also likely to artificially skew the pricing of contracts in a way that is divorced from election […]
This is a long-winded way of saying the market is never “wrong.” It simply reflects all available information. If you correctly disagree with the market, you can be rewarded for that belief, by betting yourself. […]
“Vice President Harris knows that more than 20% of Black Americans own or have owned cryptocurrency assets, which is why her plans will make sure owners of and investors in digital assets benefit from a […]
Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey, said these differences were not very meaningful. “We’re used to using polls in election forecasting, and with polls, there’s a well-understood margin of error, […]
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