“If the trading amounts to any one of these species of election or market manipulation, then it is also likely to artificially skew the pricing of contracts in a way that is divorced from election […]
Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey, said these differences were not very meaningful. “We’re used to using polls in election forecasting, and with polls, there’s a well-understood margin of error, […]
“It’s likely that federal agencies will continue to see their authority curtailed as a result of the Lopper Bright ruling and in the absence of new, clearer legislation from Congress,” wrote Alex Thorn, head of […]
Kalshi, which won a significant victory in court last week when a federal judge ruled its political prediction markets should be allowed to trade in the U.S., said the CFTC wouldn’t suffer any major harm […]
If granted, the stay would mean Kalshi wouldn’t be allowed to list its election markets until late September at the earliest. The company, which settles trades in U.S. dollars, has been locked out of this […]
“The Commission should treat Kalshi’s certification in the same manner it treats all DCM certifications of new products, and then do what Congress provided: Undertake a public rulemaking process to establish a legal framework for […]
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