“Markets aren’t perfect, but they’re the best mechanism we’ve got, for discounting not only future cash flows but future uncertainties,” Pidot said. “So markets generally benefit from models to the extent they can incorporate them […]
“If the trading amounts to any one of these species of election or market manipulation, then it is also likely to artificially skew the pricing of contracts in a way that is divorced from election […]
This is a long-winded way of saying the market is never “wrong.” It simply reflects all available information. If you correctly disagree with the market, you can be rewarded for that belief, by betting yourself. […]
Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey, said these differences were not very meaningful. “We’re used to using polls in election forecasting, and with polls, there’s a well-understood margin of error, […]
Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated. CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by […]
Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated. CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by […]
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